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“如期实现2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的目标”是中国向世界作出的庄严承诺，系统进行碳达峰、碳中和的理论溯源，对于准确厘清内涵、聚焦关键领域和优化实施方案具有重要现实意义。本文依次对碳锁定与碳解锁、碳排放脱钩与碳减排影响因素、碳达峰情景预测与经济社会影响、碳汇与碳中和的理论演进脉络进行了全面梳理和评述。在经济高速增长转向高质量发展的新时代，中国已经走上了“碳锁定→碳脱钩→碳达峰→碳中和”的低碳发展快车道；作为碳排放的核心源头，能源结构优化、能源转型与能源价格改革位居实现“双碳”目标的关键地位；政府可在推动低碳技术创新、能源供给侧结构性改革、绿色金融和财税政策领域大有作为，而碳交易、碳市场和碳定价则是发挥市场化减排机制的重要载体；中国未来实现“双碳”目标须根植于高质量发展新情境、以习近平生态文明思想的整体布局协同推进，从政府与市场关系优化维度探寻碳达峰、碳中和的可行路径。
Abstract：Achieving the "double carbon" goals(namely, carbon peak and carbon neutrality) involves extensive and profound economic and social changes. In order to identify practical breakthroughs, clarify the promotion mechanism and path, and do a good job in "double carbon" in an orderly manner, it is urgent to trace the theoretical source of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and judge the development situation. However, the existing literature is relatively scarce in exploring the promotion path of "double carbon" from the perspective of the historical evolution of carbon emission law and carbon emission reduction theory, especially in focusing on the key areas of energy transformation and optimizing the relationship between government and market.This paper comprehensively reviews the new theoretical progress, including carbon lockin, carbon unlocking,decoupling of carbon emissions, influencing factors of carbon emission reduction, scenario prediction and economic and social impact of carbon peak, carbon sink and carbon neutrality. In addition, it examines the key role of energy transformation and the relationship between government and market in the process of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The research results show that with the continuous development of industrial structure adjustment, low-carbon technological innovation and low-carbon policy, China is walking in the fast lane of low-carbon economic development from carbon locking to carbon decoupling, and to carbon peak and carbon neutrality. However, there are still objective realities such as heavy task of industrial structure adjustment, low proportion of clean energy and arduous task of dual control in energy consumption volume and intensity. This requires the energy structural optimization, clean energy transformation and energy price reform. Moreover, the government should give full play to its role in various fields such as low-carbon technology innovation, green finance and fiscal and tax policies. Improving carbon trading, carbon market and carbon pricing mechanism is very important for realizing the marketization of carbon emission reduction. To achieve the "double carbon" goals, it is necessary to accurately understand the new situation faced in the high-quality development stage, implement the idea of green development and deal well with the relationship between government and market.Different from the existing literature, this paper mainly makes the following three marginal contributions. Firstly, it systematically arranges and reviews the literature on carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and expands the theoretical research on the realization path of "double carbon" from the perspective of carbon emission law and the evolution of carbon emission reduction theory. Secondly, different from the existing prediction or policy simulation research on carbon peak and carbon neutrality, it focuses on the operable policies and measures in the key areas of energy transformation and the optimization of the relationship between government and market. Thirdly, it explores and clarifies the analytical framework of the new situation, new tasks, basic compliance and policy mechanism guarantee faced by the "double carbon" work in the high-quality development stage.This paper reviews the research progress of "double carbon" theory and studies the promotion path, revealing the internal evolution logic of carbon emission law and carbon emission reduction policy in the process of China's economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development. This can help local governments at all levels strengthen their theoretical understanding and policy optimization of the energy transformation and the role positioning of government and market in carrying out the "double carbon" action, and provide theoretical support and policy reference for local governments at all levels to accelerate the realization of the "double carbon" goals.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19653/j.cnki.dbcjdxxb.2022.02.002
中图分类号:X32;F124.5
引用信息:
[1]李少林,杨文彤.碳达峰、碳中和理论研究新进展与推进路径[J].东北财经大学学报,2022,No.140(02):17-28.DOI:10.19653/j.cnki.dbcjdxxb.2022.02.002.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金青年项目“城镇化进程中‘碳锁定’的形成机理、风险测度与解锁策略研究”(71403041); 辽宁省财政科研基金一般项目“推动‘碳达峰’‘碳中和’实现辽宁绿色经济发展的财政政策研究”(21C015); 辽宁省教育厅应急项目“辽宁资源型城市转型创新发展的路径选择研究”(LN2019Z02);辽宁省教育厅智库项目“辽宁制造业数字化转型赋能绿色发展的机制识别、效果检验与政策优化研究”(LN2020X08); 辽宁省社会科学规划基金青年项目“绿色GDP考核约束下大气污染联防联控政策效果评价与优化路径研究”(L19CJY008)